Warning of heavy rain in the wake of cyclone crossing Qld coast

A tropical low intensifying in the Coral Sea could develop into a category 3 cyclone that makes landfall anywhere from Cairns to as far south as Central Queensland.

And meteorologists have warned “the story might not be over” if the system crosses the coast, with heavy rainfall forecast to follow in its wake.

The Bureau of Meteorology said it was yet to rule out the possibility the tropical low – which was “slowly developing” with a moderate chance of becoming a cyclone as of Sunday morning – could develop into a category 3 system, to be named Kirrily, and make landfall along the battered Far North coast.

“It has an increasing chance through the next couple of days, there’s a high chance from tomorrow, and most days through the week until Friday,” senior meteorologist Steve Haidley said on Sunday.

“So there was not much change overnight, a bit of development but not enough for it to become a cyclone.”

The Bureau’s Tropical cyclone forecast said there is a 60 per cent chance 05U will develop into Cyclone Kirrily on Monday, rising to 85 per cent on Tuesday and Wednesday.

While it is developing in the Coral Sea, well away from the Queensland coast, it was expected to begin slowly moving to the southwest, towards the coast, on Sunday.

The forecast said a coastal impact on Queensland is considered more likely than not, but there still remains some uncertainty in the movement of the system.

A severe impact remains possible, particularly if the system crosses south of Cairns.

Senior meteorologist Daniel Hayes said the area that could potentially be in the firing land if it made landfall was huge.

“There is a wide area where, if it did made a crossing at this point, it could come ashore between the upper north tropical coast down to around central coast, Capricornia area, basically Cairns down to Rockhampton,” he said.

“The latest model we are looking at though is south of Cairns, so that Cooktown to Mackay region … in some of the models it could make landfall and then bring very heavy rainfall to the region a bit later in the week so we will definitely be keeping an eye on that. The story might not be over after it hits.

“If it takes longer to turn around and head south of Cairns, which at this stage it does appear to be looking like that, it will have more time to develop into a much stronger system and have a more severe impact to the region.

“If you’re in a coastal area which is exposed to tropical cyclones, pay attention to what’s going on coming out from the Bureau of Meteorology, but also make sure you prepare for the tropical cyclone season.”

The Bureau is forecasting heavy rain across the South East in conjunction with severe heatwave conditions.

“Most of the thunderstorm activity is probably heading towards more inland parts,” Mr Hayes said. “So through the Gold Coast Hinterland, the Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba area more broadly across the Downs.”

Meanwhile, most of the state has been sweltering through a record breaking heatwave.

Mr Haidley said Yeppoon on Queensland’s central coast minimum on Saturday was 28.2C the warmest since their records began.

The coolest place in Queensland on Sunday morning was Applethorpe where it got down to 19.3C at 5:44am.

The warmest was Birdsville with a low of 31.3C at 6:38am.

As the low-intensity heatwave continues Mr Haidley said both temperatures and humidity would rise.

“Some of those temperatures are going to be high for any time of year, by Monday it could be 4 to 7 degrees above January averages,” he said.

Brisbane was expecting a top of 34C on Sunday and 36C on Monday, while Ipswich would rise from 35C on Sunday to 39C on Monday.

However, Mr Haidley said the Southeast coast was lucky to have some relief in store.

“The great thing about the Southeast is the south easterly change to come through as early as Monday afternoon and provide relief from late Monday,” he said.

“Tuesday temperatures will be much more suppressed with that change right across the southeast and there will not be much sun because of cloud cover.”

Mr Haidley maximum temperatures could drop up to 10 degrees between Monday and Tuesday with Gatton to go from 39C to 29C and Brisbane from 36C to approximately 30C on Tuesday

“Humidity will drop too, so much more pleasant if you don’t like the heat,” he said.

High humidity levels and maximum temperatures of 30C or above are forecast for the entire state on Sunday, with storms and localised heavy falls possible along the areas north of and including the Gold Coast.

Lifesavers and lifeguards are bracing for huge surf on the Gold and Sunshine coasts in the coming days, depending on the looming cyclone’s path.

Swells as big as 4.5m have been tipped to hit the South East during the week – possibly peaking on Australia Day – but experts say the forecast is still too unpredictable.

Gold Coast chief lifeguard Chris Maynard said lifeguards would not hesitate to close beaches if conditions became dangerous.